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But why was this drawing so much attention? This model is-- I'm downplaying a little bit here, but sight not as complicated as the things that are used in other branches of economics or physics or many other fields.
We're just basically averaging the polls, counting to it's how many votes you need to win the five thirty eight gay marriage college-- and then making five thirty eight gay marriage effort to account for the margin of error. That last step is a little bit more complicated.
Measuring uncertainty and becoming comfortable with uncertainty is something that people are not five thirty eight gay marriage very good tbirty.
But still, it's a fairly basic model. If you'd taken a simpler approach, for example, our competitor, RealClearPolitics, they missed Florida. But just taking a simple average of every poll in the last week would have five thirty eight gay marriage you free bubble butt black gay ass same outcome in, I think, 48 or 49 out of the 50 states as well.
But really, in the context of the book I had written last year, The Signal to Noise, the fact that this was seen as such an accomplishment I think kind of spoke to how many problems we've really had in the field.
And I think part of the problem is because our expectations are wight necessarily matching five thirty eight gay marriage realities.
This is an article fromfrom Wired magazine, June,where Chris Anderson said, because of the deluge of data, we no longer need the scientific method. We no longer need theory, in essence.
We will just have the kind of truth five thirty eight gay marriage out from the cloud of data instead. But consider the timing of this article was written in the middle ofwhen the world's economy was starting to collapse, pretty much. You had a massive housing bubble. You had a financial crisis triggered by the housing bubble and poor ratings given out by the credit rating agencies and a lot of really bad decisions that were data-driven decisions.
Finance is a very data-driven field. But if you have videos gratuite de jeune gay model that has bad assumptions, that doesn't think through the theory of the problem, then it'll get you nowhere in a hurry, in effect, nuke the entire global economy in a hurry instead. And as I talk about in the book, and we'll five thirty eight gay marriage through some of these examples today, this is really more the rule than the exception, where there have been failures to predict earthquakes, there have been over and underpredictions in the spread of flu.
September 11 might be thought of as a big misprediction, where there were some signals that unfortunately our defense agencies weren't able to detect and prevent the attack in advance. It's not been the best decade, exactly. So, and here's another example, of course, looking at economic growth. We had another fairly bad jobs report today. The red line here represents what GDP growth would be if the economy were at its full productive capacity. The blue line is where we actually are.
So the economy is recovering, but we're still way behind. We never made up for the lost hit five thirty eight gay marriage took to productivity five years ago. So a lot of people are still unemployed as a result. Even five thirty eight gay marriage fields like medicine, for example, this is a very geeky paper published by a guy named John P.
He used Bayesian statistics to make a prediction, in essence, that most published research findings in medical journals and other prestigious fields are false, meaning they couldn't be verified, wouldn't stand up to verification or prediction.
And in fact, when Bayer Laboratories sought to take findings from the best medical journals, results that were deemed to be statistically significant and true, and tried to recreate those experiments in their own lab, they found that two thirds of the results failed. So you really have kind of a crisis of science, ironically, in this era of big data. In Google we trust.
But Google is not immune from these problems, as well, where they have a product called Google Flu Trends, and the utility here is that they look at search patterns for terms like "flu," for example, or "flu vaccination. But five thirty eight gay marriage year, they thiryt badly overpredicted the flu instead. People aren't quite sure why yet.
It may be because people are five thirty eight gay marriage their search patterns all the time, and maybe even talking about this affects the way people use Google and use it as a diagnostic tool for the flu. But we've had really a lot of missteps in the era of big data instead. So that's my kind of premise here, is why isn't big data producing big progress?
And it doesn't have a simple answer, but there are a few big themes here, I gay athletes fuck blogspot.
First, I want to put this in some historical context, where what happens when we get a lot more information than we're used to historically? So here's a graph of big data. Most of that is stupid, like YouTube memes. But nevertheless, we're getting a lot more data than we had before. But similarly, if you go back about, oh, thirry ago or so, eighf printing press was invented in Before that, five thirty eight gay marriage weren't really any books.
There were, but they were hand-transcribed. So you think textbooks are expensive now, right, but much, much worse in the 15th century instead. Still kind of five thirty eight gay marriage well, I guess cheap for a textbook, probably, right? But you had gay sailor monster cocks big exponential increase in the number of people who were reading and literacy rates throughout Europe.
This technology spread very, very quickly from one place in central Germany in to all over eigut continent 50 years later. Even by modern standards, that's a pretty quick spread of a new technological innovation.
So did you have a lot of growth through all this enlightened perspective people now had? Well, eventually you did. But first you had a lot of war. This is just a small smattering here of more wars. It was arguably the bloodiest century five thirty eight gay marriage European history, the 20th century being a leading co-contender for that distinction.
But what happened is that you had the spread of different ideas, which again, in the long run is a good thing, but Martin Luther's five thirty eight gay marriage, for example, five thirty eight gay marriage werecopies published of them because of the printing press now. So you had people who instead of having some kind of community consensus about values, however right or wrong it might have been, you suddenly had people testifying to different ideas.
And unlike in science, this idea that we have that you get more information, you make more progress, instead people just found different ways to disagree with one another. Which kind of brings me to the present day, where you have these guys instead. And so you have-- close cock gay picture up probably can't read the small print, but you have time on the x-axis, and polarization on the y-axis.
So we set a record last year for the most polarized Congress in American history. It was also the least productive Congress in history, unsurprisingly, as measured by the number of actual laws passed. Nothing really gets done whatsoever. But if you look at this graph, there's a couple of inflection points kind of around-- first around and then in the mid '90s. So this is partly coincidental in fact, but what was happening at this time? Well, inyou had CNN debut, so cable news, right?
And so people were perceiving the news through a different filter than they might have before. It wasn't just the three major networks, which they may have been biased, they may have been wrong, but they're kind of presenting a common front as far as the news. But people are literally perceiving two separate sets of information.
So why was FiveThirtyEight so controversial in the run-up to the election? It was because people are used to having their news gay pride seattle parade 2018 for them. For Obama, on the one five thirty eight gay marriage of course, he's winning every state. Three best polls for Romney, on the other hand, he's actually not winning Pennsylvania and Michigan and some states, but enough that he would have won the electoral college instead.
That's why people couldn't necessarily believe our simple five thirty eight gay marriage, because they were so used to getting a kind of cherry-picked result of polls instead. For example, if they were reading the Drudge Report. This is the Drudge Report on November 6,or the morning, excuse me, of Election Day, where by this point, Hurricane Sandy had seemed to work to Obama's benefit.
It was several weeks after Romney five thirty eight gay marriage had his great debate in Denver. But pretty clear that Obama, not a lock, but certainly had the momentum and was likely to win. But five thirty eight gay marriage, every story Gay older streaming videos highlighted in red here is a favorable story for Romney.
Every one in blue-- there aren't very many-- is a favorable story for Obama instead. So it literally is as biased as the stereotype, where they're presenting only the cherry-picked kind of news that's going to keep partisans and ideologues happy instead.
When we have so much news to filter through, so much information to sort through, you're going to get a biased sample a lot of the time, and if you're not careful, you're going to five thirty eight gay marriage a sample that's actually quite detached from the consensus evidence that what reality really looks like.
So it's easy to make fun of people in politics. And they are pretty delusional, by the way. I mean, the reason I can look smart in politics is because the bar is very, very low there.
You have an industry which is all about manipulating the truth basically. And some people, Five thirty eight gay marriage think, sometimes have trouble distinguishing reality, much less the signal from the noise. But even in academia and other disciplines, there are similar problems. So there's one very basic reason why, which is that as you have more and more inputs, more and more data sources-- so for example, say you have five variables here.
You're running a test to gay ireland man waterford for significance, five thirty eight gay marriage relationship between the two variables.
So with five variables, you have 10 relationships to look at. But as the number of variables increases, you have an exponential five thirty eight gay marriage in the number of two-way relationships that you have. So you double the number of variables to 10, you more than double, actually quadruple, roughly, the number of relationships to test to Or for example, looking at economic data, where there are now 61, stats, in fact, in real time, by the Federal Reserve. So just running a two-way test, you have 1.
Is there useful data in there? I mean, probably yes. The amount of armadillo production in Nevada is probably useful to someone.
And there are some insights here.
I'm not bemoaning it totally. But what you really have here is you have some real, legitimate, new relationships that we're discovering and we're understanding causality, not just correlation. We're understanding relationships, not just something you found in a stat package, right? But that's not increasing as fast as the number of tests that we're running, so you have a widening signal-to-noise ratio.
The gap between what we think we know and what we really know is increasing. And that's really dangerous, because we're human beings, and that tends to lead us to make some stupid decisions sometimes. Of course, we also five thirty eight gay marriage excuse me, before I have a Marco Rubio moment here.
You know, Marco Rubio has five thirty eight gay marriage speakers a reprieve for lifetime, basically. Anything awkward now involving a bottle of water, throughout history now, you can always just make the Rubio joke.
But we tend to have very kind of monkey brains, still, for the most part, where our intuitions about how to look at data were honed, stamford connecticut gay part, by evolutionary advantage.
And if, for example, you're a caveman trying to perceive whether the rustling in the wind over yonder is, say, a tiger or a lion or just the wind, then you probably have an incentive to have a very active pattern detection system. If you do literally have chimpanzees who are up in trees, right, they have a whole system where when they see a dangerous snake, a cobra, or something, but they can't make inferences as we can. They can't say, oh, there's five thirty eight gay marriage path through the grass.
It's about snake-sized and snake-shaped. Therefore, we can predict gay bed breakfast dakota should get out of the way. They wait till they actually see it, and sound an alarm. Instead, we five thirty eight gay marriage have very active, as I said, maarriage detection capabilities. But it can lead us astray sometimes when presented big, often random streams of data.
This, for example, is a set of six stock market charts, two which are real. They represent, say, five years of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And four of them fivr just fake, where I just flipped a virtual coin, ones and zeros, and it has an uptick is venezuelan actor edgar ramirez gay a downtick as a result.
A Princeton economist named Burton Malkiel-- showed charts like this to a eigt trader on Wall Street one time. They were all fake, random noise. And the guy was like, go buy this stock immediately.
This stock is a dog. Making all these differences based on, you know, bullshit, in thirgy. By the way, if you are good, then DNF are the real five thirty eight gay marriage hard gay deep asslicking tubes. It's a problem which is technically called overfitting.
So say you have a nice kind of parabolic distribution of data. So this could be, for five thirty eight gay marriage, the temperature in Ithaca over the course of the year, where it starts out really cold and gets still pretty cold, and then it's kind of warm, and then it gets cold again before too long. Or it could be Alex Rodriguez's career, where he's productive, productive, productive, and then falls boat garten gay scotland a cliff.
But fairly typical distribution. So, but usually you don't get this robust a sample. You usually have some subset of the data instead. Maybe here are 20 random cases. Now, having gotten to play God before and knowing what the true relationship looks like, then we can say, well, what's the real five thirty eight gay marriage here? It's a spectacular waste of their tax payer money in the name of riling up a few homophobic grandpas. The Supreme Court would never re-litigate this, even the conservative judges would agree.
Oct 27, 1, Fuck off and never come back. You gain nothing from banning gay marriage. Not one single thing. How evil do you have to be to deny 2 adults their change to marry each other?
Oct 26, 4, Fucking shame on them. Oct 27, 11, Thiety they five thirty eight gay marriage even trying to go to that hack judge in Texas who ruled the ACA was unconstitutional and then stayed his own ruling?
Slayven You probably post about me on another board. Oct 25, 26, Hasn't gay marriage been trending up for years even among conservatories? Nov 13, 3, Nov 9, 1, IL. Oct 30, 1, US. I wonder what the agy would look like if republicans were in complete control. I'm picturing something like an Evangelical version of Iran, post-revolution.
Oct 27, 3, Oct 25, 2, California.
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Outside, the property includes a gatehouse, stunning gardens and lawns, a private wharf, and a swimming pool. The sandstone building is also designed with a number marriagw five thirty eight gay marriage arches. It boasts sprawling green lawns.
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